The Koto Plum Grove appears to be about half in bloom.
(This information was provided by Sasako @ Nishitsu SP)
Quoted from Koto Plum Grove Plum Blossom Report｜February 6, 2024
As of February 6, the plum blossoms at Koto Plum Grove are reportedly half in bloom.
So, we’d like to take a look at some statistical data and make a Nishitsu prediction.
*For the data used in this prediction, we’ll use past captures from the “Koto Plum Grove Plum Blossom Report.”
First, here’s the recent data.
Data from 2023 ↓
Half in bloom on the 20th, and in full bloom on March 3. In other words:
Full bloom 11 days later
Data from 2022 ↓
Half in bloom on February 20, and in full bloom on March 4. In other words:
Full bloom 12 days later
In 2021, there weren’t many flower buds, so there isn’t really any usable data.
Data from 2020 ↓
Half in bloom on February 7. Full bloom on February 17. In other words:
Full bloom 10 days later
- 2月15日21.4%(3票)
- 2月16日7.1%(1票)
- 2月17日35.7%(5票)
- 2月18日14.3%(2票)
- 2月19日14.3%(2票)
- 2月21日7.1%(1票)
Conclusion
Looking at the most recent three years with available data, it seems to reach full bloom 10 to 12 days later, so if we take the average of 11 days, we predict it will be in full bloom on Saturday, February 17. We’re not experts or anything, so if we’re right, please tell us Nishitsu is pretty impressive〜
*Sasako @ Nishitsu SP, thank you for the tip!!
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