Here’s a summary of the public debate hosted by the Junior Chamber of Commerce for the Nishinomiya mayoral election — Part ②: Money Edition!
If you haven’t read Part ① yet, start here ↓
In the previous childcare edition, we saw all sorts of policy proposals like support for nursery teachers and free medical care, but…
This is actually where the debate got the most heated.
目次
First, let’s understand: What’s Nishinomiya’s financial situation right now?
Have you ever heard that Nishinomiya’s finances are in trouble?
Last year, the budget proposal was even rejected by the city council… On the other hand, the city newsletter says “we’re improving”…
So, what’s the real deal?
Let’s put it in terms of a household budget:
The number that tells us this is called the “real single-year balance (whether they can get by on salary alone),” and Nishinomiya has been in the red for a long time.
So what does “improving” mean? It means the amount of the deficit has been shrinking. The deficit itself is still ongoing.
So how are they covering that deficit?
They’re dipping into savings to make up the shortfall.
In other words, “there’s money in the wallet” but “on salary alone, they’re in the red every month“ — that’s the situation.
Here are the numbers ↓
Deficit based on salary alone (real single-year balance)
FY2019: ▲5.04 billion yen
↓
FY2022: ▲4.24 billion yen
(The year it was widely covered on TV and in newspapers)
↓
FY2024: ▲1.49 billion yen
The deficit is shrinking, but it’s still in the red.
(Source: Nishinomiya City Fiscal Structure Improvement Plan Progress Report)
“Wait, it IS improving!” — is what you might think!
“It’s down to ▲1.49 billion yen”
The numbers make it look like there’s been significant improvement! This is what the city newsletter was talking about when it said “improving”
But the details behind this improvement are pretty important…
However, this includes 990 million yen from selling city-owned land
(Once land is sold, it’s gone, so you can’t count on the same amount next year)
❷ Resident tax and prefectural tax grants came in higher than expected → 2.87 billion yen
(There’s no guarantee the same amount will come in next year either)
So yes, it’s true the city improved things by 1.99 billion yen through its own efforts. But that includes one-time revenue like land sales, and the 2.87 billion yen tax windfall was largely a matter of luck.
When you look at only the “improvements that will continue year after year,” the picture is different.
(Source: Nishinomiya City Fiscal Structure Improvement Plan Progress Report / Financial Analysis Briefing Materials)
How significant is this on the scale of all of Nishinomiya?
Even excluding land sales and tax revenue windfalls, FY2024 saw about 1 billion yen in improvement. Of that, pure spending cuts amounted to 800 million yen. Nishinomiya’s general account expenditure is 204.5 billion yen, and personnel costs alone are 38.9 billion yen, so 800 million yen is not a number you can dismiss as “insignificant.” However, it’s also hard to say this alone has turned the finances around. That’s roughly where things stand. (Sources: here and here)
*The 38.9 billion yen figure here is based on general account settlement data
Personnel costs have risen by 6 billion yen over 10 years
This might not be widely known, but…
Nishinomiya’s personnel costs (salaries for city employees, etc.):
FY2014: 29.8 billion yen
↓
FY2024: 35.9 billion yen
An increase of about 6 billion yen over 10 years
*These figures are based on the Fiscal Structure Improvement Progress Report. In the general account settlement report, FY2024 personnel costs are 38.91 billion yen — the figures differ depending on which accounting categories are included (think of it like whether “food expenses” includes eating out or not).
There’s a metric called the “current account ratio” that shows how much of the city’s annual income gets eaten up by fixed costs:
Nishinomiya: 96.7%
Core city average: 93.0%
Nishinomiya has a very heavy burden of fixed costs that must be paid every year.
The closer to 100%, the more “stretched thin” it means. Nearly all of Nishinomiya’s annual revenue goes to fixed expenditures like personnel costs and welfare. There’s almost no money left for anything new.
If this improves, the city would have room for things like:
– Major rebuilding and maintenance projects (schools, waste facilities, hospitals, libraries, etc.)
– Building up reserves (saving for the future)
– Emergency preparedness (funds for when disasters cause budget shortfalls)
– New services and initiatives
(Source: Nishinomiya City Fiscal Structure Improvement Plan Progress Report / Fiscal Base Data 2014-2025 Summary)
Given this situation, what would the 3 candidates do?
By the way, the “RAT RACE” clothing they’re wearing is a beloved local apparel brand from Nishinomiya — Nishi2 just threw that in on our own~
| Ishii | Tanaka | Hatamoto | |
|---|---|---|---|
| How to cut spending | Continue with the current improvement plan. Keep reducing recurring expenses | Says the current plan isn’t enough; push harder on personnel cost reform (Don’t take 5 years to do it) | Against personnel cost cuts. “Honestly, there’s not much left to cut” |
| How to earn more | Resident tax grew from 85.6B to 91.6B yen since taking office. Boost tax revenue by making Nishinomiya “a city where people can work” | Address the outflow from the furusato nozei (hometown tax) system / support local industry | Solving welfare challenges can become business opportunities |
| Overall stance | Continue fiscal improvement while also investing in childcare, healthcare, and community development where needed | Fiscal recovery comes first. Fix things like personnel costs, then invest once the foundation is solid | Sees limited room for major cuts; prioritizes AI/DX adoption and a “revenue-generating” mindset |
